AFL Total Goals and First Goals
I mentioned in a prior story I’m fascinated by first goals in AFL games and how to predict them. It is common to bet on first goals in an AFL game and that is part of my motivation. Since the 2022 regular season has wrapped up, I figured I’d share some stats from 2022 and 2021 on goals and first goals and highlight the relationship or lack thereof.
A bunch of players had the top number of first goals in 2022 but they had significantly different total goals for the season.
When we combine 2022 and 2021, there is a clear favorite in scoring first goals.
Combining 2021 and 2022 shows how even elite scorers lack the ability to score the first goals in games. Harry ‘I can’t score first’ McKay may be partly to blame for his lack of first goals, but his his team rarely scores first, which may also be his fault… Anyways even top goal scores like Tom Hawkins may not have a lot of first goals. Basically, don’t just bet on the highest goal scorers to score first in a game.
