Can we predict the first goals in AFL games?
Can we predict the first goals in AFL games?
Over the past five months, I’ve been working on some predictive models for cycling and AFL games. I’m more or less hooked on the problem of predicting first goals in AFL games. I swear, it’s the challenge of the seemingly random nature of predicting first goals and not an excuse to see more of Joe Daniher’s mustache.
I plan to cover some initial findings and save the more advanced prediction work after I select a winning model and strategy (testing several at the moment). These basics will be profitable if someone has patience and good table selection (avoiding bad bets). The data is scraped from afl.com.au and requires advanced scraping to get the JavaScript on the page. That means you are controlling a browser with your code.
Scoring a lot is not necessarily a good predictor of first goals though. Below is data from regular season games covering 2021 to 2022 through August 17th, 2022.
AFL player position is a significant factor in predicting the first goal in an AFL game. This makes sense as players in a position to score are more likely to score.
The team is also a major factor, I’m displaying the URL for each team in the chart below. The Y-Axis is percentage of total first goals by each team. This makes sense as good teams should score more first goals.
There are some interesting outliers, like Harry McKay.
While this are some basic insights, the data is not available anywhere on the web. If I were a betting man, I would focus on teams that score first often like Melbourne FC and focus on forwards in the starting line-up. Bookies tend to favor players that score a lot with their odds (like Harry McKay), but I would avoid falling for that trap and focus on other starters on top teams in high scoring positions. Hopefully this helps the AFL punters out there with their bets!